号称中国第一大经济贪污案的〝远华走私案〞，日前宣布侦查终结，6个月前刚刚从加拿大引渡回中国的赖昌星，对走私、行贿犯罪事实供认不讳。外界分析认为，赖昌星认罪，只不过是照剧本演出的一场戏而已，而中共当局在这个时机宣布〝远华走私案〞终结，说明了党内利用赖昌星案件的政治内斗已经平息，估计今年的十八大政治布局的框架已经基本确定。
据大陆官方报导，赖昌星现已被移送厦门检察院审查起诉。熟悉中共高层贪腐内幕的赖昌星自1999年潜逃到加拿大后的十二年里，一直试图申请加拿大政治庇护，但在中共的长期压力下，加拿大最终拒绝了他的避难申请，2011年7月23号，加拿大政府获得中共当局保证〝不对赖昌星处以死刑〞的承诺后，将赖昌星遣返回中国。
美国华府人权律师叶宁：〝赖昌星这个案件有很多政治在里面，赖昌星曾经为中共国安部工作的这么一个密探，一个间谍，那么赖昌星又掌握了大量的中国所谓党和国家领导最高决策的最高层的机密，按道理来说，赖昌星这个案子不属于引渡的范围，而且中共政府虽然保证不对赖昌星使用死刑，但是不能保证中共政府不使用酷刑。〞
外界对赖昌星认罪普遍持怀疑态度。曾代表赖昌星的加拿大律师马塔斯（David Matas）表示，不相信中共当局会真正就案件展开调查。他认为，有关报导说赖昌星认罪只是〝演戏〞，绝非赖自愿认罪。
〝民主中国阵线〞副主席盛雪猜测，赖昌星认罪出于中共授意，可能被逼迫，也可能有交换条件。
盛雪：〝因为本身远华走私案它是一个黑洞，它后面有重重叠叠的黑幕。赖昌星在海外的十二年当中，他一直说他是这个案子的代罪羔羊，实际上这个案子，是一个高层政治权力斗争的这样一个性质，那么今天赖昌星是在中共手上，赖昌星到底说了什么，实际上外界也是永远不可能知道真相的了。〞
美国华府人权律师叶宁分析说，赖昌星的命运，从引渡回国那一天起就在中共当局的掌控之中，所谓的供认不讳，只不过是赖按照当局所要求的部分，依样画葫芦的进行百分之百的认罪。
叶宁：〝赖昌星怎么样认罪，这个罪认到什么程度，咬出，供出多少人来，这就是一个很大的问题。 赖昌星认罪的宽度，广度，可以涉及到很多很多现任的中共的决策当局，以及和他们有关系的上级下属之间的这个政治命运的问题。 因为整个赖昌星案件不是一个法律案件，他就是一个政治案件。 〞
〝赖昌星案〞涉及600多名大小官员，最高职务者为时任公安部副部长的李纪周。有媒体说，实际上〝远华案〞牵扯到中共最高层。
盛雪：〝他是不是会牵扯中共高层的内斗，不取决于他，而取决于中共高层的布局。在当时他是跟很多高层有相当复杂而且深厚的关系，当时这些政治对手都会利用赖昌星，利用远华案来打击他们的政治对手。〞
外界认为，案件即将进入司法程序，可望在明年初结案宣判，不会对明年秋季召开的中共十八大造成影响。
叶宁：〝赖昌星案件现在结束，他表明十八大的政治格局基本尘埃落定，应该说十八大整个架构没有太多悬念，如果没有这个前提的话，赖昌星这个案件是不会结束的。〞
新唐人记者陈汉、许旻、李若琳采访报导。
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Lai’s Guilty Plea: A Plot Set by the 18th National Congress
The investigation into China’s largest known corruption
scandal, "Yuan Hua smuggling case," is now closed.
The suspect, Lai Changxing, who was extradited from Canada
just six months ago, has confessed to smuggling and bribery.
Analysts believe that Lai’s guilty plea is only part of a script,
the timing the Chinese authorities announced
he verdict in this case illustrates the political struggle
involving the “Yuan Hua smuggling case” has subsided.
It is believed that the 18th National Congress political
framework has been basically established.
According to a Chinese state media report, Lai has now
been transferred to Xiamen prosecutors.
Knowing too well the corruption involving Chinese
high-level officials, Lai Changxing fled to Canada in 1999.
For 12 years, he has been trying to apply for political refugee
status in Canada.
Under the persistent pressure from the CCP, Canada
ultimately rejected his application for asylum.
On July 23, 2011, the Canadian government repatriated
Lai upon a promise that Lai Changxing would not be executed.
"0:29 Lai Changxing’s case involves many politics; Lai used to
work for the Chinese Ministry of State Security as a spy.
He held numerous confidential secrets involving the
highest level of the Party and the state leaders.
Theoretically, this case does not fall within the
scope of extradition.
Even though Chinese Government has assured no death penalty
to Lai, there is no guarantee that torture won’t be used."
People generally are skeptical about Lai’s guilty plea.
David Matas,
the Canadian lawyer who once represented Lai,
is skeptical of the Chinese authorities having investigated.
In his view, the confession reported by the media is
only an act, not really a voluntary plea.
Vice Chairman of Federation for a Democratic China, Sheng
Xue, suspects Lai’s pleading guilty was either instructed,
forced, or in exchange for something mandated by the CCP.
Sheng Xue: "0:02 The Yuanhua smuggling case itself
was a black hole embedded with hidden secrets.
Over the 12 years of staying overseas, he (Lai) has claimed
to be a scapegoat in this case.
In fact, this case is a high level political struggle.
Under the control of the CCP, exactly what Lai Changxing
has said will never be known. "
Human rights lawyer Ye Ning analyzes that the fate of Lai
Changxing has been controlled by CCP since his extradition.
The so-called confession is only a process according to the
authority’s plot.
Ye Ning: "5:00 How Lai plead guilty, the extent of his
confession, the number of people he would give out, that is a big problem.
The extent and the level Lai pleaded guilty can involve many,
many current decision-making authorities of the Chinese Communists,
as well as the political destiny of those relevant superiors
and subordinates.
Because Lai Changxing’s case is not a legal case,
it is a political case. "
"Lai Changxing case" involves more than 600 officials.
The highest position is Vice Minister of the Public Security, Li Jizhou.
Some media said, in fact, "Yuanhua case" involves the
highest level of the CCP.
Sheng Xue: "1:38 Whether or not it will involve the CCP’s
internal power does not depend on him,
but rather, on the layout of the high level CCP officials.
He was there with a lot of very complex and very strong
relationships with the high level.
Lai Changxing was used to combat their political opponents.”
It is speculated that the case will enter the judicial process
and to be closed early next year.
It shall not affect the 18th National Congress next autumn.
Ye Ning: "1:51 Lai Changxing’s case is now over.
It shows that the basic pattern of the 18th National Congress
has settled;
there is little doubt about the structure of the
18th National Congress.
Without this premise, Lai Changxing’s case
would not have ended."
Ye Ning said that the end of this case has delivered a
very important message to the world:
the CCP regime will have a smooth transition
during the 18th National Congress.
NTD reporters Chan Han, Hui Min and Li Ruilin
