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你愿意住在红州还是蓝州?

We’re supposed to be the United States of America. But in many ways, we’re now divided into two very different nations.

我们应该是美利坚合众国。但在许多方面,我们如今分裂成了两个十分不同的国家。

There is red state America.

一个是红州美国。

And there is blue state America.

一个是蓝州美国。

The red states favor conservative, small government, free market policies: low taxes, light regulation, tough-on-crime policing, and worker freedom. Think Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, and Utah.

红州倾向保守主义、小政府、自由市场政策:低税收、宽松管制、严打犯罪的治安与工人自由。想想佛罗里达、德州、田纳西、亚利桑那和犹他州。

The blue states favor a liberal/left, big government approach: high taxes, heavy regulations, high minimum wages, and mandatory union membership. Think New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Illinois, Oregon, and, of course, California.

蓝州倾向李伯儒/左派、大政府主义:高税收、严格管制、高最低工资与强制性工会会员制。想想纽约、新泽西、康涅狄格、马萨诸塞、伊利诺伊、俄勒冈,当然还有加州。

Progressives like to argue that their big-government, high tax policies are economically superior and thus better for the poor, minorities and working-class Americans than those of red states. Conservative policies, progressives contend, are culturally backward, and tilted to benefit the rich.

进步主义者喜欢辩称他们的大政府高税收政策具有经济优势,因此对穷人、少数族裔及工人阶级要比起红州更友好。进步主义者断言,保守主义政策是落后文化,向富人的利益倾斜。

Let’s test this thesis by comparing three of the largest red states: Florida, Texas, and Tennessee with three of the largest blue states: California, New York, and Illinois.

让我们检查这条论断,比较三个大红州(佛罗里达、德州与田纳西)与三个大蓝州(加州、纽约与伊利诺伊)。

If progressive policies really work, then Americans should be rushing to get into the blue states.

假如进步主义政策的确可行,那么美国人应该一窝蜂涌入蓝州。

But just the opposite is happening.

但发生的情况正相反。

Americans are packing up their U-Hauls and heading to the red states. According to the New York Times, in August2020, so many people wanted to leave New York City that moving companies were turning away business. They just couldn’t handle the demand.

美国人举家搬迁至红州。根据《纽约时报》,在2020年八月,想离开纽约的人多到搬家公司回绝生意。他们实在应付不来需求。

This exodus may be accelerating, but it’s not new.

这股搬家潮也许在加速,但并非新鲜事。

Over the last decade the three big blue states each lost an average of one million people to other states, while the three big red states gained almost a million from other states.

过去十年,这三个大蓝州平均分别流失了一百万人到其他州,那三个大红州接收了从其他州流入的几乎一百万人口。

Makes perfect sense. Americans like freedom. Small government means more freedom.

完全合理。美国人热爱自由。小政府意味着更多的自由。

And freedom means opportunity.

而自由意味着机遇。

Let’s say you’re looking for a job. Over the last decade, Florida, Texas and Tennessee have gained twice as many jobs as the progressive states.

假设你在找工作。过去十年,佛罗里达、德州和田纳西的新增职位比进步主义州多两倍。

Not only that, but your money goes further in red states. According to a2019 Tax Foundation study, your$100 stretches to$111 in purchasing power in Tennessee, while in New Jersey it shrinks to$89.

不仅如此,你的钱也更多流入红州。据税务基金会2019年研究报告,在田纳西,你的100美元购买力可达111美元,而在新泽西则缩水到89美元。

If you’re a big corporation or a small company looking for a business-friendly environment, affordable housing or maybe just a better quality of life, where are you going to go?

如果你是一家大企业或小企业,在寻找亲商业环境、可负担的住房,或者只是更高的生活质量,你会去哪里?

The tough decision is not choosing a red state or a blue state. The tough decision is which red state to move to.

艰难的决定不在于选择红州还是蓝州,而是该选择搬去哪个红州。

Progressives like to say that this isn’t about economics, it’s about weather. The red states tend to be in the South and southwest where the weather is warmer.

进步主义者喜欢说这无关经济,而有关气候。红州通常都在南方,而西南地区天气更暖和。

But that doesn’t explain why so many people are leaving California which has the best weather in the country.

但这解释不了为什么那么多人离开加州这个全国天气最好的州。

So, what does explain the migration from blue states?

那么,什么能解释从蓝州的迁徙?

Start with taxes. The two most populous blue states— California and New York— have the highest tax rates in America, while the two most populous red states— Texas and Florida— have no income tax at all.

从税收开始。两个人口最多的蓝州——加州和纽约——税率为全国最高,而两个人口最多的红州——德州和佛罗里达——则根本没有所得税。

When taxes get too high, people move to where taxes are lower. The problem for the high-tax states is that these people take their money, their ambition, and their employees with them.

当税收过高,人们搬去税收较低的地方。高税州的问题是这些人带着他们的钱、野心和雇员一起离开。

Then, there is crime.

接着,是犯罪。

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Do blue cities do better than red cities?

蓝市比红市要好吗?

The answer, of course, is no. Of the twenty cities with the highest murder rates,18 are run by left-leaning Democrats— and for the most part, have been for decades. And these cities aren’t getting safer; they’re getting more dangerous.

答案当然是否定的。二十个谋杀率最高的市里,18个由左倾民主党人管理——而且大多数几乎是管理了数十年。这些市并没有变得更安全;它们变得更危险。

A good chunk of Minneapolis was burned to the ground as a result of riots, following the death of George Floyd.

明尼阿波利斯大部分地方因骚乱被烧为平地,从乔治·佛洛依德死后持续至今。

Portland had over90 consecutive nights of rioting— not peaceful protests, rioting.

波特兰连续90晚发生暴乱——不是和平抗议,是暴乱。

Seattle allowed an entire section of the city to declare itself an autonomous zone— a first in American history!

西雅图允许市里的一大片区域自称自治区——美国史上第一次!

Progressive governors, progressive mayors, progressive police chiefs run all these cities and states.

进步主义州长、进步主义市长、进步主义警察局长管理著这些所有市与州。

Ask any resident of Los Angeles or San Francisco about the rise in homelessness and you’ll get a litany of horror stories. Both cities, of course, have a long history of progressive mayors.

随便问问洛杉矶或者旧金山的居民关于无家可归的上升问题,你会听到一连串可怕的故事。这两个城市当然都长期由进步主义市长管理。

How about keeping us healthy and safe? Surely the progressive states, with their strict lockdowns, did a better job saving lives from the coronavirus.

那么在维持我们的健康与安全方面呢?进步主义州的严格封城政策肯定从新冠手里拯救了更多生命吧。

Nope.

不。

Adjusted for population, as a resident of New York, New Jersey or Illinois, you were three, four or even five times more likely to die of the virus than if you lived in a red state like Florida, Texas, Georgia, Utah or Arizona.

经过人口调整,作为纽约、新泽西或伊利诺伊的居民,你死于新冠病毒的几率要三倍、四倍,甚至五倍于生活在佛罗里达、德州、乔治亚、犹他或亚利桑那等红州。

Progressives and liberal Democrats may mean well. They certainly talk a lot about how much they care about the poor, minorities and the working class.

进步主义与自由派民主党人也许出于好心。他们肯定总是说自己多么关怀穷人、少数族裔与工人阶级。

Yet somehow, it’s always the poor, minorities, and the working class who pay the price for their bad policies. That’s why those who can move, move. Those who can’t get stuck with the short end of the stick.

然而不知何故,总是穷人、少数族裔与工人阶级为他们糟糕的政策付出代价。这就是为什么能搬走的人搬走了。而由不能搬走的人承受恶果。

Red state America is prospering. Blue state America is in meltdown.

红州美国繁华发展。蓝州美国处于崩溃。

So, where do you want to live?

所以,你想住在哪里?

I’m Stephen Moore, economist at FreedomWorks, for Prager University.

我是史蒂夫·摩尔,FreedomWorks的经济学家,

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