Whether Chinese Communist Party(CCP) general secretary,
Hu Jintao, will remain as Central Military Commission (CMC)
chairman is a hot topic alongside the 18th National People's Congress (NPC) meeting.
On November 12, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post
quoted unnamed sources saying that,
Hu Jintao "will not remain as the Central Military
Commission Chairman”.
Analyses on the CCP's current situation shows that,
willingly or not, Hu Jintao has two key reasons to continue
his role as the chairman of the CMC.
In China, one person simultaneously adopts the roles of
CMC chairman, general secretary and state president—
the most powerful positions within the CCP.
It is understood that negotiations between different factions
of the 18th NPC will reach their peak on November 14;
over 200 Central Committee members will be appointed.
The first Plenary of the 18th NPC will be on November 15,
held by the new session of the Central Committee.
They will appoint new members of the Political Bureau,
the Standing Committee, the Central Commission for
Discipline Inspection—internal anti-corruption institution—
and the Central Military Commission.
At this critical moment, South China Morning Post quoted
unnamed sources, reporting that after the 18th NPC,
the current 3-in-1 officer, Hu Jintao,
will also resign from his post as CMC chairman.
Successor Xi Jinping is said to take the positions of
CCP General Secretary and the CMC chairman.
Although independent commentator Han Wu believes
Hu Jintao will not remain in office,
he says the news report is just a kind of ‘probing’
without any substantive significance.
[Han Wu]: "The report is trying to probe a response from
the faction of domestic princelings and the Jiang Zemin faction,
as well as from the western world and overseas media.
It has little practical significance—that is to say,
China's politics is very dark;
the outside world cannot distinguish it
very clearly from its appearance."
Columbia University's Ph.D. graduate in Political science,
Li Tianxiao, believes that it could be a tentative message released by Jiang's faction,
to probe the attitudes towards Hu retaining
his role as chairman of the CMC.
Li says that in the Wang Lijun and Bo Xilai cases,
Jiang's faction had lost its ground.
Hu Jintao, who had been clamped by Jiang's faction
and unable to make any political decisions that would be
effective outside of Zhongnanhai, finally got out of this catch.
After 10 years of repression, Hu has only now started to
have control over the military.
Li Tianxiao says, at this crucial moment,
Hu will not give up this position easily.
[Dr. Li Tianxiao, Political Scientist]:
"Why can't Hu let go easily?
The most important reason is liquidation and anti-liquidation
—such a key issue.
If he let go of military power easily, it's likely that Bo Xilai
and Jiang's faction will counterattack with their military force,
which is unfavorable to Hu—it's a ‘life and death’ issue.”
Li Tianxiao says there's another reason for Hu Jintao to
remain as CMC chairman.
[Dr. Li Tianxiao]: "Hu can help Xi Jinping in the military—
after all, Xi has weak military foundations—
when Xi takes power and tries to liquidate Jiang's faction
further, he may need military power.
Basically, Hu's military contacts have now become very
in-depth; so in this way, he can play a very important role."
South China Morning Post reported that Hu will no longer
remain as CMC chairman.
On the same day, it reported: “After Xi Jinping takes over
as CCP General Secretary,
he may still need to wait another two years to control
the world's largest army—the People's Liberation Army."
A few months ago, infighting between CCP senior factions
had been heating up;
one of the hot spots was over whether Hu Jintao
will continue to serve as CMC chairman.
Ping Kefu, military expert and editor-in-chief of Han Defense
Review magazine says, Hu is very likely to continue in office.
In September this year, Tung Chee-hwa, who has served as
vice-chairman of the National Committee of the CCP's
Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference(CPPCC)
and as Hong Kong's chief executive, took a media interview.
The U.S. Cable News Network(CNN) who took the interview
reported that Hu Jintao will not resign from all positions.
Tung believes Hu Jintao is likely to continue serving as
CMC chairman for some time.
Tung also emphasizes that he has not obtained any solid
information; his views are speculations based on history.
