美国和南韩、日本连续在中国家门口大搞军事演习，北京如何应对，令世界瞩目。《华盛顿邮报》12月8日刊登伊格纳修斯（David Ignatius）发自北京的文章说，崛起的中国是个自相矛盾的国家，它既想在全球事务中起到更大的作用，又饱受临阵怯场之苦。

　　这种观感体现在中国官员的言谈中。上星期五在北京中共中央党校举行的一次中国、美国、欧洲多边会议上，一位中国高级官员谈到北韩、人民币汇率等重大问题时说：“中国应当少当旁观者，多做行动者。当我们出场时，不应当背对观众，好像我们也是观众的一份子。”

华盛顿邮报：自相矛盾的中国 是缩头乌龟还是崛起的大国？


　　然而中国人提出解决办法时，却表现得小心翼翼。中国官员不认为，北韩和全球经济不平衡是大问题。他们建议的焦点是讨论而不是行动。在会议后的记者会上，北京大学政府管理学院常务副院长傅军表示，中国为北韩问题开出的药方是‘对话，对话，再对话”。“维基解密(专题)”披露的一份美国国务院密电说，这种方式让国务院官员感到沮丧。他们认为，北京私下纵容北韩的边缘政策。

　　中央党校召开的这次会议，是一次不寻常的努力，目的是探寻中国和美国、西方的共同利益和联合行动的可能性。与会的哈佛大学教授、前美国助理国务卿伯恩斯（Nicholas Burns）说：“不管共同利益的程度多么令人惊奇，我们似乎并没有能力一起干点什么。”他指出，中国对北韩具有最大的影响力，“但却不太愿意运用”，因而中国作为一个安全伙伴，“尚未通过考验”。

　　出席这次会议的几名中国官员解释说，中国的外交政策之所以小心翼翼，部分原因是官员们的注意力集中在保持国内经济增长，让潜在不满情绪的公众高兴。一位中国高级官员说：“我不认为中国是自私的。”但他承认，北京首先需要考虑的，是中国的内部问题。在北韩问题上，北京担心受到压力的平壤会孤注一掷，打发大量难民涌过边界进入中国。

　　会议的对话产生了一些行动的迹象。中央党校的一位教授在会议开始时，驳斥美国对人民币汇率问题的指责。但经过多番讨论之后，那位教授表示，中国可能会通过提高工资水平，让工人能够购买更多从美国进口的货品，来减少贸易盈余。他甚至提议建立“合作机制”，以促进中国和美国的贸易平衡。

　　美国官员感到无奈的是，中国喜欢的是像过去几十年那样，强大而乐于助人的美国，而不是放低身段，较多伙伴关系的美国。一个美国代表指责中国人，把奥巴马政府初期的让步看作软弱，然后发出鹰派言论，把南中国海说成是中国的“核心利益”。哈佛大学教授奈伊（Joseph Nye）表示，中国官员试图私下缓和美国的关注。他们说，中国对南中国海问题的看法被“误解”了。

　　与会的中国人和美国人都声称，“我们坐在同一条船上”。这种观点值得鼓励，但这艘船目前却在随波逐流，需要中、美双方开始同心协力划桨。这次会议结束后，中国仍然呈现矛盾的形象——一方面是繁荣而自信，领导人全神贯注于国内经济增长和政治稳定，一方面和西方的政策之争，又削弱了他们的自信。



In China, confidence clouded by apprehension

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By David Ignatius

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

BEIJING

The paradox of a rising China - a country that wants to play a bigger role in global affairs but suffers from a combination of lethargy and stage fright - was on display here at a conference with Chinese officials.

"China needs to be less of an observer and more of an actor" on major issues such as North Korea and currency adjustments, one senior Chinese official declared during the meeting. "When we're on the stage, we shouldn't turn our back on the audience, as if we're part of the audience."

And yet, when it came to proposing solutions during a meeting last Friday with American and European visitors, the Chinese were cautious. Officials didn't disagree that North Korea and the imbalances in the global economy were big problems. But their recommendations focused on discussion rather than action - to the point that harmonious talk seemed an end in itself.

China's prescription for North Korea is "dialogue, dialogue, dialogue," Jun Fu, executive dean of the school of government at Beijing University, said at a news conference after the meeting. That approach frustrates State Department officials, who think Beijing is privately fed up with North Korean brinkmanship, according to a State Department cable made public by WikiLeaks.

The conference was an unusual effort to explore areas of common interest and, potentially, joint action. It was hosted by the Central Party School, a leadership training center headed by Xi Jinping, who is slated to be China's next president. The other sponsors were the Aspen Strategy Group (of which I'm a member) and the Aspen Institute Italia.

"This isn't a situation where we're talking past each other, but we don't seem to have the ability to act together" despite "a surprising degree of common interest," said Nicholas Burns, a former undersecretary of state who is now a Harvard professor and director of the Aspen Strategy Group. On North Korea, he noted, China has the most leverage but "seems reluctant to use it" and "isn't meeting the test yet" as a security partner.


The meeting was held on the campus of the party school in the suburbs of Beijing. The school's bland courtyards contrast with the gaudy architecture of the new downtown, clustered with fancy hotels and luxury boutiques.

The anxieties that accompany China's new wealth were apparent in a story that ran in the official China Daily on the morning of our meeting. It described the trend among the country's new rich to hire private bodyguards. Sometimes, it seems, gaining wealth just makes people more nervous about losing it.

Several Chinese officials who attended the not-for-attribution meeting explained that China is wary about foreign policy in part because officials are focused instead on maintaining domestic economic growth and keeping a potentially restless public happy.

"I'm not saying that China is selfish," said a senior official, who then conceded that Beijing does indeed think first about its internal problems. In the case of North Korea, China fears that pressuring Pyongyang would send desperate refugees across the border.

The conversation produced a few signs of movement. One professor at the party school began by dismissing U.S. pleas for adjustment of China's currency. But after more discussion, the professor said that perhaps China could reduce its trade surplus by raising salary levels so workers could buy more imports from the United States. He even proposed a "coordination mechanism" to foster balanced trade.

What frustrates U.S. officials is that China sometimes seems more comfortable accommodating a strong United States, as it did in past decades, than partnering with an America that's less dominant. One American delegate chided the Chinese for treating the Obama administration's early concessions as signs of weakness, and for making a hawkish new claim that the South China Sea was a "core interest" for China.

Joseph Nye, a Harvard professor with the U.S. group, said Chinese officials here privately tried to ease U.S. concerns by saying that there had been a "misperception" of China's comments about the South China Sea.

"We're in the same boat" was a remark made here by Chinese and Americans alike. That sounds encouraging. But the boat is drifting these days, if not sinking outright, and the two need to start paddling in unison.

I came away from the meeting with the same mixed picture I saw touring China a month ago - that for all the country's prosperity and seeming confidence, its leaders are preoccupied with problems of internal growth and political stability. They see policy debates with the West through this clouded lens.