为了对抗所谓“流行的现实”，一些著名历史学家长期以来就在提醒我们要注意“进步的幻像”。75汤因比的历史周期论未必是人类社会的普遍形态，但接受他的建议，保持一种历史悲观主义的感悟，从而更加清醒地观察我们的过去，是很有助益的。76秉持这一精神，本文试图展示历史周期这一概念的持久价值（至少在某些时代和地区），希望以此增加从宏观上审视历史变迁的能力，并通过政权之间、时代之间的比较找出历史变迁的范式。77只有借助这样的历史回望，才可能去重审乃至解决那些持续萦绕于中华民族现代化道路上的诸多问题。
注释：
1.原文为英文，写于2009年10月，见Guoguang Wu,“Protests Against Prosperity: The Recurring Chinese Dilemma of Economic Achievement Versus Political Discontent,” Modern China Studies22,2(March2015), pp.47-72.
2.对中国近代史的概述，参阅Jack Gray, Rebellions and Revolutions: China from the1800s to2000, Oxford: Oxford University Press,2002,2nd ed.
3.Benjamin Schwartz, In Search of Wealth and Power: Yen Fu and the West, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press,1964.
4.这方面的代表性作品，参见：范文澜，《中国近代史》，北京：人民出版社，1955；胡绳，《从鸦片战争到五四运动》（两卷本），北京：人民出版社，1981。
5.例见：Douglas S. Paauw,“The Kuomintang and Economic Stagnation1928-1937,” Journal of Asian Studies16,2(February1957),213-20; Lloyd E. Eastman, The Abortive Revolution: China under Nationalist Rule,1927-1937, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press,1974.
6. Marie-Claire Bergè, The Golden Age of the Chinese Bourgeoisie,1911-1937, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1990.
7.持这种观点的中国马克思主义历史著作，见:范文澜，《中国近代史》；胡绳，《从鸦片战争到五四运动》。非马克思主义立场、但持同样观点的著作，包括：蒋廷黻，《中国近代史大纲》，上海：青年书店，1939；李剑农，《中国近百年政治史》，台北：台北商务印书馆，1974。
8.胡绳，《从鸦片战争到五四运动》。
9.Ting-yee Kuo and Kwang-Ching Liu,“Self-Strengthening: The Pursuit of Western Technology,” in John K. Fairbank ed., The Cambridge History of China, Vol.10, Late Ch’ing,1800-1911, Part I, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1978, pp.491-542.
10.Jonathan D. Spence, The Search for Modern China, New York: W.W. Norton,1999,2nd ed, p.240.
11.Graham Hutchings, Modern China: A Guide to a Century of Change, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press,2000, p.4.
12.胡绳，《从鸦片战争到五四运动》，页655-6。
13.John King Fairbank, The Great Chinese Revolution,1800-1985, New York: Harper& Row,1986, p.141.
14.同上，p.156。
15.Philip Richardson, Economic Change in China, c.1800-1950, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1999, p.32.
16.当然，日本大致在这一时期上升到了“Great Power”地位。对这一过程的概述，参见Paul Kennedy, The Rise and
17.Fall of the Great Powers, New York: Vintage Books,1987, pp.206-9.
18.Thomas G. Rawski, Economic Growth in Pre-War China, Berkeley: University of California Press,1989, pp.336-7.
Chalmers Johnson, MITI and the Japanese Miracle: The Growth of Industrial Policy,1925-1975, Stanford: Stanford University Press,1982, p.209.另见Kazushi Ohkawa and Henry Rosovsky, Japanese Economic Growth: Trend Acceleration in the Twentieth Century, Stanford: Stanford University Press,1973.
19.Richardson, Economic Change in China, p.41.
20.同上，p.43。
21.同上。
22.Albert Feuerwerker, The Chinese Economy, ca.1870-1911, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press,1969, pp.50-3.
23.Richardson, Economic Change in China, p.45.
24.以马克思主义观点对近代中国铁路建设的政治后果的研究，见：宓汝成，《帝国主义与中国铁路》，上海：上海人民出版社，1980，特别是第四章对铁路建设如何引发地方反抗的讨论。
25.Hutchings, Modern China, p.4.
26.同上。
27.同上。
28.同上。
29.Marie-Claire Bergè,“The Chinese Bourgeoisie,1911-37,” in John K. Fairbank ed., The Cambridge History of China, Vol.12, Republican China1912-1949, Part I, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1983, p.745.
30.同上，p.746.
31.同上，p.747.
32.同上
33.同上，p.748.
34.同上，p.750.
35.Hutchings, Modern China, p.8.
36.同上，p.9.
37.同上。
38. Mankin, John K. Fairbank, and Albert Feuerwerker,“Introduction,” in John K. Fairbank and Albert Feuerwerker eds., The Cambrary B. Ridge History of China, Vol.13, Republican China1912-1949, Part II, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1986, pp.28-9.
39.Richardson, Economic Change in C p.28.
40.同上，p.43.
41.同上，pp.44-5.
42.同上，p.45.
43.同上，p.46.
44.Diana Lary, China’s Republic, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2007, p.68.
45.Bergè,“The Chinese Bourgeoisie,” p.824.
46.Lloyd E. Eastman,“Nationalist China during the Nanking Decade,1927-1937,” in Fairbank and Feuerwerker, The Cambridge History of China, Vol.13, Republican China1912-1949, Part II, p.155.
47.同上。并参见Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, chp.6.
48. Lloyd E. Eastman,“Nationalist China during the Sino-Japanese War,1937-1945,” in Fairbank and Albert Feuerwerker, The Cambridge History of China, Vol.13, Republican China1912-1949, Part II, p.594.
49.Hutchings, Modern China, p.9.
50.同上。
51.同上。
52. Bergè“The Chinese Bourgeoisie,” p.751.
53.Ranbir Vohra, China’s Path to Modernization: A Historical Review from1800 to the Present, Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall,2000,3rd ed, pp.148-9.
54. Eastman,“Nationalist China during the Nanking Decade,” p.151.
55.Bergè,“The Chinese Bourgeoisie,” p.819.
56.同上，p.750.
57.例见：Lucian Bianco, Origins of the Chinese Revolution,1915-1949, Stanford: Stanford University Press,1967; Fairbank, The Great Chinese Revolution.
58.近年来出现了一批研究中国社会不满加剧的文献。对后天安门时代抗议的系统研究，参见：Thomas P. Bernstein,“Farmer Discontent and Regime Responses,” in Merle Goldman and Roderick MacFarquhar eds., The Paradox of China’s Post-Mao Reforms, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press,1999, pp.197-219; Yongshun Cai,“The Resistance of Chinese Laid-off Workers in the Reform Period,” China Quarterly,170(2002), pp.327-44; Peter Hays Gries and Stanley Rosen eds., State and Society in21st Century China: Crisis, Contention, and Legitimation, London: Routledge,2004; Kevin J. O‟Brien and Lianjiang Li, Rightful Resistance in Rural China, New York: Cambridge University Press,2006; Ching Kwan Lee, Against the Law: Labor Pretests in China’s Rustbelt and Sunbelt, Berkeley: University of California Press,2007; Kevin J. O‟Brien ed., Popular Protest in China, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press,2008; Chih-jou Jay Chen,“Growing Social Unrest in China: Rising Discontents and Popular Protests,” in Guoguang Wu and Helen Lansdowne eds., Socialist China, Capitalist China: Social Tension and Political Adaptation under Economic Globalization, London: Routledge,2009, pp.10-28; Yongshun Cai, Collective Resistance in China: Why Popular Protests Succeed or Fail, Stanford: Stanford University Press,2010; Martin King Whyte, Myth of the Social Volcano: Perceptions of Inequality and Distributive Injustice in Contemporary China, Stanford: Stanford University Press,2010.
59.汝信、陆学艺、李培林，《2005年：中国社会形势分析和预测》，北京：社会科学文献出版社，2004。
60.,2006年11曰27日读取。另见Chen,“Growing Social Unrest in China,” p.10.
61.有关日常抗议，见James C. Scott, Weapons of the Weak: Everyday Forms of Peasant
Resistance, New Haven: Yale University Press,1985.关于中国的上访，请见下文。有关中国网络活动及其作为政治抗议的途径，例见Merle Goldman, From Comrade to Citizen: The Struggle for Political Rights in China, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press,2005, chapter6.关于最近针对政府官员个体的暴力行为的增加，参见Guoguang Wu,“China in2009: Muddling through Crises,” Asian Survey50,1(January/February2010), pp.25-39.
62.肖唐镖，“二十余年来中国大陆农村的政治稳定状况”，，2006年11月28日张贴，2007年3月3日读取。
63.它同时还程浩、黄卫平、汪永成，“中国社会利益集团研究”，《战略与管理》，2003年3期。是中共中央下属的信访局，是一套机构、两块牌子。
64.程浩、黄卫平、汪永成，“中国社会利益集团研究”，《战略与管理》，2003年3期。
65.《人民日报》，2004年8月4日，15版。
66. Li Li,“Life in a Struggle,” Beijing Review, November10,2005, p.21.
67. Keyuan Zou,“Granting or refusing the Right to Petition: The Dilemma of China’s Xinfang System,” in Wu and Lansdowne, Socialist China, Capitalist China, pp.124-37.
68.Guoguang Wu,“Conclusion: Social Tension and Political Adaptation under Globalization,” in Wu and Lansdowne, Socialist China, Capitalist China, pp.190-208.
69.Mary Elizabeth Gallagher, Contagious Capitalism: Globalization and the Politics of Labor in China, Princeton: Princeton University Press,2005; Dorothy J. Solinger, States’ Gains, Labor’s Losses: China, France, and Mexico Choose Global Liaisons,1980-2000, Ithaca: Cornell University Press,2009; Wu,“Conclusion,” in Wu and Lansdowne, Socialist China, Capitalist China, pp.190-208.
70.Minxin Pei, China’s Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press,2006; Susan L. Shirk, China: Fragile Superpower, New York: Oxford University Press,2007.
71.Susan Mann Jones and Philip A. Kuhn,“Dynastic Decline and the Roots of Rebellion,” in Fairbank, The Cambridge History of China, Vol.10, Late Ch’ing,1800-1911, Part I, pp.107-62.有关中国、特别是清代的王朝循环，参见Mary Clabaugh Wright, The Last Stand of Chinese Conservatism: The T’ung-Chih Restoration,1862-1874, Stanford: Stanford University Press,1957; Frederic Wakeman, Jr., The Fall of Imperial China, New York: Free Press,1975.
72.Wright, The Last Stand of Chinese Conservatism, chap11.
73.Albert Feuerwerker ed., History in Communist China, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press,1968,特别是其中 Albert Feuerwerker,“China’s Modern Economic History in Communist Chinese Historiography,” pp.216-46.另见：王寿林，“新政权的思想塑造：新中国成立前后的学习社会发展史运动”，《中共党史研究》，2009年10期，页58-66。
74.引自Albert Feuerwerker,“Economic Trends,1912-49,” in Fairbank, The Cambridge History of China, Vol.12, Republican China1912-1949, Part I, p.127.
75.Arnold J. Toynbee, A Study of History, New York: Oxford University Press,1947, p.38.
76.同上，p.251.
77.有关比较历史研究的方法，见James Mahoney and Dietrich Rueschemeyer eds., Comparative Historical Analysis in the Social Sciences, New York: Cambridge University Press,2003.
